Election Analysis Takes to the Airwaves

UPDATE (10:15 p.m.)—Looking for some additional post-game analysis of the elections?

I break down some of the numbers including the governor's race in Baltimore County and some council races with WBAL 1090 AM Maryland Morning News anchor Bill Vanko. 

You can listen to it here.

I also joined a cast of other political observers on the Midday with Dan Rodricks show on WYPR 88.1 FM to talk about the governor's race, County Executive-elect Kevin Kamenetz and impending changes coming to the County Council.

Less than a day removed from the 2010 mid-term elections, here's what we know and what some of it means.

K-O'd: "He told me I couldn't say this before but I can say it now, 'We gave them the K-O,'" said County Executive-elect Kevin Kamenetz, speaking of his early alliance with Councilman John Olszewski Sr., a Dundalk Democrat who was the first on the council to officially endorse Kamenetz.

Kamenetz defeated Republican Ken Holt by about 18,700 votes, or about 7 percent, to become the county's first Jewish county executive.

The numbers: Headed into the absentee ballot count on Thursday, Republican former Gov. Robert Ehrlich held a paper-thin 213 vote lead in Baltimore County over incumbent Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley. Ehrlich was expected (and needed) to win by a landslide in his home county in order to have a shot at moving back into Government House.

Ehrlich's totals were 8,200 less than in 2006, widely considered to be a very good year for Democrats, and about 64,000 less than his margin of victory in the county in 2002. The former governor failed to break 50 percent of the total vote in the county.

It's worth noting that about 14,700 fewer county voters made the effort to vote in 2010 than in 2006.

Nip and tuck: It was an emotional roller coaster ride for Democratic 6th District council candidate Cathy Bevins, who holds a 339 vote lead over Republican Ryan Nawrocki.

Bevins started the evening optimistic but appeared to be more emotional as the evening waned and she and Nawrocki swapped leads repeatedly. Bevins was down more than 200 votes before elections officials entered final precinct numbers for the night.

The race now comes down to absentee ballots. Katie Brown, the elections director at the county Board of Elections, said there are about 10,600 absentee ballots (give or take) that will be counted on Thursday. It's not immediately known how many are in the 6th Council District. Sources close to Bevin's campaign say they believe there are at lease 1,000 votes yet to be counted.

Either way, the council will look very different come December. If Bevins wins she will join Vicki Almond, the Democratic councilwoman-elect in the 2nd District, and the council will have two women as members for the first time in its history. A Nawrocki victory will make him the third Republican on the legislative body—the first time since 1990 that three GOP members sat on the council.

The council will also sport five new members—one of the biggest turnovers in its history.

Disappointing turnout: Voter turnout in Baltimore County hit 55 percent, including a week's worth of early voting. Brown, the county election director, predicted 60 percent or better on Tuesday morning. Early Wednesday morning, Brown said she was slightly disappointed with turnout that was slightly below what is typical for a normal mid-term election.

Surf's up: Sen. Andy Harris was one of the few Maryland Republicans to ride the national GOP wave by defeating of first-term Democratic Rep. Frank Kratovil. Harris, a Cockeysville resident, won six of nine Eastern Shore counties and could win a seventh—Dorchester—after absentee ballots are counted. Harris lost every county east of the Bay Bridge in 2008 in a year when that congressional district voted for John McCain, a Republican senator and presidential candidate.

GOP gains General Assembly seat: Republicans also added a seat in the House of Delegates with former Del. John Cluster regaining the seat he lost in 2006. Cluster, a Parkville resident, is currently second in a three-seat race behind incumbent Republican Del. Joseph Boteler.

Del. Eric Bromwell, an incumbent Democrat from Perry Hall and son of former Sen. Tom Bromwell, was in third. Normally one of the top recipients of votes in the district, Bromwell saw his district dominance slip this year mostly because he was unable to actively campaign for much of the last month after back surgery.

Cluster's 2006 loss was one of two GOP House of Delegates losses in 2006. Del. Steve Lafferty, a 42nd District Democrat, took a House seat vacated by Republican John Trueschler in 2006. Lafferty, a Towson resident, won re-election Tuesday night.

Happy birthday: Post election birthday wishes to Ann Beegle, 42, Jim Smith's former chief of staff and chief political strategist, and Jim Gillis, 29, a former assistant to the chief of staff in the Smith administration.

Belated Election Day birthday wishes to Mary Corey, director of content and senior vice president of The Baltimore Sun, and Patrick Roddy, 57, a partner at Rifkin, Livingston, Levitan and Silver in Towson and a former lobbyist for Baltimore County government.

Fun fact to know and tell: Cockeysville looks to be the most represented Maryland community in the state's congressional delegation. Four-term Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, a Democrat who represents the 2nd District and elected to a fifth term Tuesday night, and Harris, who is now the congressman-elect for the 1st District, both reside in Cockeysville.

Quote wall: "I've never seen anything like this in my life. Whoever thought we'd lose the Arbutus Volunteer Fire Department (central Arbutus precinct)." —Democratic Del. Jim Malone tells Bruce Goldfarb at .

Malone and fellow Democrat Del. Steve DeBoy won re-election after a long evening that for a while had their Republican challenges, especially Joe Hooe, nipping at their heels.

The bright side? Republican former delegate from Catonsville and sometimes political consultant Don Murphy Tuesday night left his friends on Facebook with this thought: "Look on the bright side ... The race for the GOP nomination for President starts tomorrow and the filing deadline for the primary is less than 14 months away!"

Murphy was the Maryland coordinator for Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign.

When do those commercials start running, Don?